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在當前通貨膨脹壓力不斷上升和貧富懸殊差距擴
大的環境下，可以預期，民粹主義和福利主義肯
定會頭。可是，香港經濟前景存在的隱憂，卻乏
人關注！
雖然特區政府向全球港人派發
6000
港元現金的豪舉
引來不少國際友人的羨慕，可是歐美國家的債務危
機、金融系統的不穩的後遺症 — 經濟衰退已經逐
步呈現，包括訂單減少下導致世界工廠珠三角出現
工廠結業潮，在港的國外、國游資開始撤退；下一
步，地的強勁消費力肯定亦會受到影響，香港的零
售市道將難免被波及，十月份國慶黃金周期間訪港
的地遊客人數和消費狀況，相信可以視未來幾個大
節日的零售寒暑表！
這次的歐美債務危機，雖然沒有
97
年的亞洲金融風
暴和
08
年的金融海嘯兩大衝擊來得突然；然而，香
港政府過去只重視金融和房地產發展，忽視推動經
濟持續發展的政策，可能會令香港進入一個經濟調
整期。因此，政府實在有必要重新檢討計劃要推出
的多項會影響香港競爭優勢和營商環境的立法，最
明顯的肯定是已在審議當中的競爭法。
較早前，加拿大費沙爾學會（
Fraser Institute
）公佈
的世界經濟自由
2011
年度報告就指出，儘管香港
的經濟自由度仍然位居全球之首，然而與隨後國家
的得分距離拉近，其中第
2
位的新加坡極有機會超
前，因香港實施最低工資和可能落實競爭法的影響
仍未計算在；尤其是，倘若香港落實競爭法，自由
度的排名肯定會下降。
此外，過去幾年，政府已經推出多項收窄營商空間
的法例，而正在排隊上立法會的還陸續有來，包
括：擴大廢物徵費、修訂商品說明條例加強保護消
費者、規管醫療儀器、禁售鎢絲燈泡等等，如果所
有建議悉數成功立法，香港的優勢更加難保！
執筆之時，兩位可能的特首候選人尚未公佈他們的候
選政綱，但本人希望任何候選人都不要過度的民粹和
福利主義。至於能否提出足以帶領香港渡過即將到來
的經濟調整寒冬，和帶領香港經濟持續發展的方向，
將會影響選委，最起碼我個人的投票意向。
Populism and welfarism are set to take centre stage as Hong Kong faces
worsening inflation and a widening wealth gap but only very few are
aware of and are concerned about the resultant negative impact such
developments would have on our economy.
The handing out of $6,000 to every adult citizen by the Government
makes us the envy of many outside Hong Kong but the debt crisis in
the US and Europe as well as the resulting financial repercussions are
gradually appearing. This is evidenced by the wave of factory closures
in the Pearl River Delta region as overseas orders vanished. Hot money
which has dominated the markets in Hong Kong and the Mainland
is receding. What we will see next is the strong consumer spending
in the past will be curbed with spillover effect on the retail market in
Hong Kong. Visitor arrival figures and their spending pattern during
the National Day golden holiday week this year will be an important
indicator of the business outlook for the coming festive months.
Unlike the 1997 Asian financial turmoil or the 2008 financial tsunami,
the debt and financial crisis in Europe and the US now did not come
as a shock. Nevertheless, Hong Kong is set to undergo a period of
economic adjustment since the Government has all along been over
reliant on developing Hong Kong’s finances and the property market
with inadequate support for other sustainable economic sectors. The
Government therefore will have to take a fresh look at the many new
policy initiatives which could adversely impact our competitiveness.
The most crucial amongst the pending legislation is of course the
Competition Bill.
Fraser Institute of Canada reported in its 2011 study that although
Hong Kong retained its number one ranking as the world’s freest
economy, others are catching up fast. It is very likely that Singapore
which currently came second would take over Hong Kong in future
ranking. When Hong Kong finally passes the Competition Bill, our
ranking will almost certainly drop.
Over the past few years, the Government has already introduced a
number of new laws or legislative amendments which have the effect
of restricting the operational freedom of businesses. Other pending
bills that have the same adverse impact include enlarge the wastage
levy, legislation to enhance protection for consumers against unfair
trade practices and regulatory framework of medical devices. If all
these bills become law, the competitive edge we enjoy today will be
gone forever.
At the time of writing, the two potential Chief Executive candidates still
have yet to make public their election agenda and I hope they would
not resort to populism and welfarism. My personal choice would
be someone who is able to steer Hong Kong through the economic
hardship and bring our economy back to sustainable growth.
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